Cómo será “Canciones urgentes para mi tierra”, el recital por el ambiente que se hará este domingo en un pueblo de Córdoba

"},{"level":2,"_id":"USF433HZWVEKDCLYLTLZ2PHPAY","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"La gestión"},{"_id":"JV2PALXVMNHHFDJA7JQZ35B2VA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El propio informe de Pulso Research señala que la evaluación general de la gestión Milei está dividida: un 33,6% la califica como “muy mala” y un 12,1% como “mala”, mientras que un 23,8% la ve “bien” y un 22,3% “muy bien”. "},{"_id":"AYQW7WRXVFGS7C5WLHP2GFP5S4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En líneas generales, la aprobación le gana por muy poco a la reprobación."},{"_id":"7SCDZ2IOXBBTTICAYHBCQSOQFA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Sin embargo, cuando el foco se pone en la mirada federal, la desaprobación se vuelve abrumadora."},{"_id":"KUR6KDQ4K5HMJLF2DKNNHTKFYQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La percepción de olvido no es nueva, pero se ha profundizado en los últimos meses. Gobernadores de distintas fuerzas políticas han advertido sobre el impacto del ajuste y la falta de diálogo con la Nación. "},{"_id":"M7TF2GMD7JFN7EED27CZ4Q4XBM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En provincias como Córdoba, Santa Fe, Tucumán o Mendoza, la preocupación por la caída de la obra pública y la merma de fondos nacionales es tema de todos los días. Incluso en distritos donde Milei obtuvo un alto caudal de votos, la paciencia comienza a agotarse frente a la falta de respuestas concretas."},{"content_elements":[{"_id":"QTU2WXUBHNFOJJDCLQFZKCSDEA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Antes del 17 de agosto, los principales dirigentes políticos de Córdoba deberán tomar decisiones importantes. Serán dos en una: la primera, si van a competir en las elecciones legislativas; y la segunda, con qué partido o alianza lo harán."},{"_id":"FEEDVYM4KZDGTBDQL2Z6OBUMLE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Hasta hoy, es difícil anticipar el panorama, aunque hay algunas certezas. Por ejemplo, que el planteo estratégico del Gobierno nacional será convertir la elección de diputados nacionales (9 en el caso de Córdoba) en un referéndum sobre la gestión de Javier Milei. Algo que dio resultado en la votación a legisladores locales de Caba."},{"_id":"SRCN3CO2IFBFDNHO652LXRANC4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La otra cuestión es más compleja: ¿cuántas listas se presentarán? ¿Habrá varias alianzas o algunos partidos se animarán a presentar candidatura en solitario?"},{"_id":"ZFWNMKPS7NGRFFM7VSNJKEAXRM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El foco está en un tema no menor relacionado con la cantidad de votos que se necesitarán para llegar a una banca, lugar que se definirá por el sistema D’Hondt."},{"level":2,"_id":"7N5WRWWGAFADXNOFIFLZRZJB6U","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Escenario"},{"_id":"GVXZ4MGATZCINDHIM4DFOGKWEE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En Córdoba, por estas horas, La Libertad Avanza construye territorio, con las giras al interior del diputado nacional Gabriel Bornoroni. El presidente del partido en la provincia no deja fin de semana sin compartir una reunión con militantes. Lo hace acompañado de dirigentes del propio espacio, dejando en claro que por ahora la idea es presentar una lista de “sangre violeta”. Es decir, sin alianzas."},{"_id":"LUVU7MGNBFDCTFH4FLZKT2ZIPQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En el peronismo, aún no se lanzó la campaña porque esperan una respuesta clave: la de Juan Schiaretti. En base a una alta imagen positiva y a la decisión de construir una fuerza nacional, el gobernador Martín Llaryora espera que su predecesor acepte encabezar la lista a diputados nacionales."},{"_id":"MYBUT7NN3FD5HF2E2SIRVM66GA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El tema es qué pasaría ante un “no” de Schiaretti. ¿Quién sería el cabeza de lista? Por ahora, no hay certezas."},{"_id":"DGCCRIIIWJBRDKBCXS7IUGUHN4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En ese escenario, el nombre de Natalia de la Sota da vueltas y plantea el desafío para Llaryora de no dejarla fuera de una propuesta peronista, aunque con la dificultad de sumar a alguien opositora 100% a Milei."},{"_id":"Q3F4AQM6JVE6ZBRYFUDS7BMFPU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"¿Puede De la Sota compartir una propuesta que busca siempre el equilibrio con los libertarios? No hay respuestas aún."},{"_id":"6WGQCGDIMNG37GBG55KMDFPS7Q","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Lo de Natalia linkea con las definiciones en el kirchnerismo. El núcleo duro de los partidarios de la ya presa Cristina Fernández se ha mantenido en las últimas elecciones (entre un 8% y un 12%), lo que parece asegurarles una banca."},{"_id":"JGWHOKZSDZGKLFTESOWI7YJPOE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"¿Será para De la Sota? Hay quienes la ven como la primera en esa lista, opositora a Milei."},{"_id":"37MCYAK4GJC2DGYMWF372RGZ6Q","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La gran, gran duda la tiene Rodrigo de Loredo y el radicalismo. Luego de algunos acercamientos a La Libertad Avanza, el camino se bifurcó y el diputado radical ahora buscará explorar una propuesta en solitario o con lo que queda del PRO."},{"_id":"EUJMCLX76ZBFXAWREAOSE3LJ2Y","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Su problema es que llega al fin del actual mandato, y necesita -y quiere- renovar su lugar."},{"_id":"IPQSI5BQCRH6FF3RICN76NI5KU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En varios de los casos mencionados, el tema es matemático: cuántos votos se necesitarían para llegar a una de las 9 bancas a diputado nacional que se pondrán en juego en Córdoba en octubre próximo."},{"_id":"AHN6VMOREZCDDCELGFFYWMCTUA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Recordemos que, para lograrlo, hay que pasar el tamiz del sistema D’Hondt."},{"level":2,"_id":"RX2ULY5BYNBORH5OMTO3DKFUQU","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"¿Qué es el sistema D’Hondt?"},{"_id":"KJD7VEXBINEUJDP3ZLAW562I2U","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El sistema D’Hondt es una manera matemática de distribuir los escaños de forma proporcional, según los votos que recibe cada lista. Es decir, no se los lleva todos el que gana, pero tampoco se reparten “exactamente” según los votos: favorece un poco a los partidos más votados y castiga a los más chicos."},{"_id":"KTHK5H7N25DIXMSE54JOYYN4OQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"A cada lista se le hacen divisiones sucesivas: se divide su cantidad de votos por 1, por 2, por 3, etcétera, tantas veces como bancas haya (en este caso, 9). Se ordenan todos los resultados de mayor a menor."},{"_id":"KRAFDIW2Z5GLDM2TQZSJABF5RM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Se asignan las bancas a los nueve números más altos. Cada vez que un número pertenece a una lista, esa lista se lleva una banca."},{"_id":"X53LX272PFHZFIL6ISAUPAQAUY","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Volvamos a Córdoba. Y hagamos un ejercicio con los números de las últimas elecciones nacionales, las de 2023, y apliquémosle el D’Hondt."},{"level":2,"_id":"Y5FFIMVPT5GTDGQ7ERIQ63F5ME","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Elecciones Paso 2023"},{"_id":"KSXLSUOIWBBALJKD2S5MU6ZBAE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En las primarias nacionales de 2023, hubo una sobreoferta de listas (sobre todo, por el negocio de la impresión de boletas). De aquella situación, tomamos los primeros cuatro: La Libertad Avanza (677.595 votos), Hacemos Unidos por Argentina (555.958), Juntos por el Cambio (516.179) y Unión por la Patria (163.508)."},{"_id":"2BFV2X2VINDR7EL4ITXG7VZALA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Con esos números, las bancas a diputados se hubieran repartido:"},{"list_type":"unordered","_id":"ZDMLBRVMZZBB7NK3DWRWZAXXLQ","type":"list","items":[{"_id":"DGWHFWAUTFGHBCCGB4PCGCZFJE","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para Hacemos Unidos por Argentina (el peronismo)"},{"_id":"YUO5DYPBLRFELGUPLWLFPJFQNE","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para La Libertad Avanza"},{"_id":"DGDFX5LHIJHIXKDXAH4YHXLV5I","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para Juntos por el Cambio"}]},{"_id":"ILN6VVOQOJFQTHB4DKKVZBOVUU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Hubiera quedado sin banca el kirchnerismo."},{"_id":"BA7CKPA3KVHELLHZIJEC67DTFQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En porcentaje, diríamos que La Libertad Avanza consiguió 3 diputados con el 32,7%; Hacemos Unidos lo hizo con el 26,8%; y Juntos por el Cambio con el 24,9%."},{"_id":"6AFNZP2YCFFHNAINGL4QTDIQAA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"¿Con cuántos votos –según la división del D’Hondt– se llegó a la última banca? Aproximadamente, con 185.319."},{"_id":"EODQNZEVLBDBJIYBSRVB33VLN4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Pero las Paso no sirvieron para definir los escaños, sino que filtraron las propuestas más representativas para que compitieran en las generales. Allí sí se definieron las últimas renovaciones."},{"_id":"35TDD6HPBBBSPKWU2PPOS7EFSU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Los números de aquellas elecciones tuvieron primero a La Libertad Avanza (751.428 votos), segundo a Hacemos Unidos por Argentina (679.603), seguido por Juntos por el Cambio (509.837) y, al final, Unión por la Patria (286.615)."},{"_id":"VWBRNOLTMJB3JO2QWGQ4BUZP3M","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Con esos números, las bancas a diputados se repartieron:"},{"list_type":"unordered","_id":"GTIUBIMG3ZAD7O2RYWFIWOIBPQ","type":"list","items":[{"_id":"ZNFWDSZTHNB3TPH3DNUOFV4O44","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para La Libertad Avanza"},{"_id":"XWXHD2R5LZG3DNGNTXDNU6HMRA","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para Hacemos Unidos"},{"_id":"VXRCW66IURCCJPH5XQLUDDIJBY","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"2 para Juntos por el Cambio"},{"_id":"YA6OJC5TLVG4FO526FFGBTLZ54","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"1 para Unión por la Patria"}]},{"_id":"FAQPIS4Z3BDQTCH5E5TFA4IP5Q","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En porcentaje, La Libertad Avanza consiguió 3 diputados con el 32,6%; Hacemos Unidos lo hizo con el 29,5%; luego, Juntos por el Cambio obtuvo 2 con el 22,1%; y finalmente, el kirchnerismo alcanzó 1 banca con el 12,4%."},{"_id":"YNLJ7IEPP5GXBDP4XVTRC5CZ5E","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En este caso, es claro que con los 286.615 votos del kirchnerismo se alcanzó la última banca."},{"level":2,"_id":"TJY3433VDNG7RIUNR4FFIRCZ3Y","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Hipótesis"},{"_id":"PR2SXLX465DMJPVVT4P436SRNU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"¿Qué pasaría si De Loredo y su postulación, en una suerte de alianza entre la UCR y el PRO, no se diera? ¿A dónde irían esos votos del viejo Juntos por el Cambio y qué ocurriría con el reparto de bancas?"},{"_id":"7DRQGFO7TBAKHI5ZPSGKARVJFM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Vayamos entonces a la segunda vuelta presidencial, en la que ya no se votó para diputados nacionales."},{"_id":"QYYHNMTDBNAHLCEZIG5QCQHXR4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Aquel balotaje en Córdoba tuvo 1.639.102 votos para Milei. Es decir, que a los 751.428 obtenidos en las generales se le sumaron 887.674 más."},{"_id":"44GQLX7PXNFJ7KLSJQED2RMBQY","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Es dable decir que allí fueron los 509.837 de Juntos por el Cambio y una porción nada despreciable (unos 377.000 aproximadamente) que habían optado por Schiaretti."},{"_id":"2TYG6ZO4SVCAJC4KOK6J7XWA2Q","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Si al menos los votos de Juntos por el Cambio se comportaran como en el balotaje, la lista de Milei podría sumar en octubre unos 1.261.265."},{"_id":"BOKOVX5MH5HN5HVH3EB5EFKHAE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En el resto, supongamos que el PJ local repite su performance en las generales y mantiene los 679.603 votos, y el kirchnerismo también, con sus 286.615."},{"_id":"4O245D6BD5CAFFZNBCO6NRRES4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Con un escenario de tres listas fuertes, podría darse el siguiente reparto:"},{"list_type":"unordered","_id":"7JLGQ725UVHRFHXNC7AEVPCY4E","type":"list","items":[{"_id":"QVCSJU5L6ZHQDLEYDBOHJK6OIQ","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"4 bancas para La Libertad Avanza"},{"_id":"OSPXSKNP4VE6VEHAULNIR52NLU","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"3 para el PJ"},{"_id":"SO2MIXZVMNCFPDT3525ZE7VPKE","additional_properties":{"indent":0},"alignment":"left","type":"text","content":"1 para el kirchnerismo"}]},{"_id":"6ZQMMFZB2FCEBIM7IJK76XLH34","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En porcentaje, eso da: 4 diputados con el 55,75%; 3 con el 30%; y 1 con el 12,67%."},{"_id":"62NWXFGOZBCFFHVUR4G375UONA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Así, como en las generales, los 286.615 votos del kirchnerismo parecen ser el mínimo necesario para alcanzar una banca."}],"subheadlines":{"basic":"Antes del cierre del 17 de agosto, los principales espacios políticos deben definir si compiten y con quiénes. El sistema D’Hondt obliga a pensar cada alianza en términos matemáticos."},"source":{"system":"composer","name":"grupoclarin","source_type":"staff"},"taxonomy":{"primary_site":{"referent":{"website":"la-voz","id":"/politica","type":"section"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"},"sites":[{"referent":{"website":"la-voz","id":"/politica","type":"section"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}],"sections":[{"referent":{"website":"la-voz","id":"/politica","type":"section"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}],"tags":[{"description":"Elecciones 2025","text":"Elecciones 2025","slug":"elecciones-2025"},{"description":"Exclusivo","text":"Exclusivo","slug":"exclusivo"}],"primary_section":{"referent":{"website":"la-voz","id":"/politica","type":"section"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}},"related_content":{"clonedChildren":[],"basic":[],"clonedFromParent":[]},"type":"story","credits":{"by":[{"referent":{"referent_properties":{},"provider":"","id":"fgiammaria","type":"author"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}]},"first_publish_date":"2025-06-18T16:49:57.253Z","additional_properties":{"is_published":true,"publish_date":"2025-06-18T16:49:57.253Z","has_published_copy":true},"last_updated_date":"2025-06-18T17:04:11.696Z","owner":{"sponsored":false,"id":"grupoclarin"},"workflow":{"status_code":1},"label":{"volanta":{"display":true,"text":"Elecciones 2025."}},"promo_items":{"basic":{"referent":{"referent_properties":{},"provider":"","id":"FARGLHA7RBE7REEJTM6YLFTEXU","type":"image"},"_id":"FARGLHA7RBE7REEJTM6YLFTEXU","additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}},"canonical_url":"/politica/cuenta-regresiva-para-las-listas-con-cuantos-votos-se-consigue-una-banca-a-diputado-en-cordoba/","distributor":{"name":"grupoclarin","category":"staff","subcategory":""},"version":"0.10.11","canonical_website":"la-voz","revision":{"editions":["default"],"parent_id":"7HDJJY35UREG3HHWT6LLGZINJ4","published":true,"branch":"default","revision_id":"NOZBOZJSFBGRRL66IVDPMM5GMA"},"planning":{"story_length":{"character_count_actual":6692,"inch_count_actual":10,"word_count_actual":1153,"line_count_actual":66}},"content_restrictions":{"content_code":"premium"},"display_date":"2025-06-18T16:49:57.253Z","headlines":{"tablet":"","print":"","meta_title":"","native":"","web":"","mobile":"","basic":"Cuenta regresiva para las listas: con cuántos votos se consigue una banca a diputado en Córdoba"},"websites":{"la-voz":{"website_url":"/politica/cuenta-regresiva-para-las-listas-con-cuantos-votos-se-consigue-una-banca-a-diputado-en-cordoba/","website_section":{"referent":{"website":"la-voz","id":"/politica","type":"section"},"additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"}}},"created_date":"2025-06-18T15:49:59.965Z","_id":"5ACRSVK3QVGM3HCBHQUGWB6ABE","publish_date":"2025-06-18T17:04:11.516Z"},{"_id":"EJUBV4JEXNAY3LBMEPVOGTO6NQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":""},{"_id":"FIC53V4CWBBTLE2RA6UYMSUIBU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El estudio de Pulso Research coincide con otras encuestas recientes que muestran un respaldo a Milei por debajo del 50% a nivel nacional, con una imagen positiva que ronda el 45% y una desaprobación en alza. "},{"_id":"YXJY23FSHJGZHCB2NVJTSBUKEE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Si bien el Presidente mantiene un núcleo duro de apoyo, sobre todo entre jóvenes y sectores urbanos, la brecha con el interior se amplía."},{"owner":{"sponsored":false,"id":"grupoclarin"},"address":{},"syndication":{},"auth":{"1":"c90ac9d23226c799315d2752fd48d99922cb39b275c5a8c9eef1b6331ca00821"},"caption":"Martín Llaryora, Luis Caputo y Guillermo Acosta (redes sociales).","source":{"system":"photo center","name":"la voz","edit_url":"","source_type":"other","additional_properties":{"editor":"photo center"}},"taxonomy":{"associated_tasks":[]},"type":"image","distributor":{"mode":"custom","name":"La Voz","category":"other"},"version":"0.10.9","url":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/grupoclarin/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg","licensable":false,"credits":{"affiliation":[{"name":"La Voz","type":"author"}]},"subtitle":"Llaryora Caputo","width":3498,"creditIPTC":"La Voz","_id":"NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E","additional_properties":{"fullSizeResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg?auth=c90ac9d23226c799315d2752fd48d99922cb39b275c5a8c9eef1b6331ca00821","proxyUrl":"/resizer/v2/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg?auth=c90ac9d23226c799315d2752fd48d99922cb39b275c5a8c9eef1b6331ca00821","originalUrl":"https://cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/grupoclarin/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg","published":true,"resizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg?auth=c90ac9d23226c799315d2752fd48d99922cb39b275c5a8c9eef1b6331ca00821","ingestionMethod":"manual","thumbnailResizeUrl":"/resizer/v2/NZKQ4733UFEM5HC4CUOPLCAD2E.jpeg?auth=c90ac9d23226c799315d2752fd48d99922cb39b275c5a8c9eef1b6331ca00821&width=300","version":0,"originalName":"WhatsApp Image 2024-06-11 at 19.04.29.jpeg","mime_type":"image/jpeg","restricted":false,"template_id":821,"galleries":[]},"created_date":"2024-06-11T22:06:32Z","last_updated_date":"2024-06-11T22:06:32Z","height":2430,"image_type":"photograph"},{"level":2,"_id":"EC4RSOMDOFCHJK45C6OO252A2I","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Expectativas y clima social"},{"_id":"NA3BODFNTZFDHHWGJQWCQFYBG4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El clima social también refleja incertidumbre: el 40,6% de los encuestados dice sentir esperanza de cara al futuro, pero un 19,6% expresa incertidumbre y un 14,4% bronca o enojo. "},{"_id":"DEDH6WFJBBF6PO3KYTTTPK5EC4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La economía, la inflación y la falta de empleo siguen siendo las principales preocupaciones, y la sensación de que el interior queda relegado suma un nuevo factor de malestar."},{"_id":"MLT3AKVONZDBXFJK6F3CK34XEY","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"De todas maneras, un 51,8% sigue afirmando que la “responsabilidad sobre la situación actual” es de la gestión anterior (solo el 35,9% dijo que es culpa de Milei)."},{"_id":"XYWJ6XREIZAWPDDNGC2BRHY3QI","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En este escenario, el desafío para el gobierno de Milei es recuperar la confianza de las provincias y mostrar gestos concretos de federalismo. De lo contrario, la percepción de un país cada vez más centralizado podría convertirse en un obstáculo insalvable para su proyecto político. Y lo acercaría a otros experimentos políticos, como el kirchnerismo, por ejemplo."},{"_id":"WHNRRI2ABZFEFGV3UYZDRERNQ4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El interior, ¿siente que no está en la agenda nacional? En un país históricamente tensionado entre el centro y la periferia, la demanda de mayor equidad y protagonismo federal vuelve a estar en el centro del debate. "},{"content_elements":[{"_id":"BPION6GMIBDVDBBGKDL6EMJTBI","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Se sabe: en tiempos de polarización extrema, la reacción frente a hechos de alto voltaje institucional suele leerse a través del prisma de la grieta. Grieta consolidada, vale remarcarlo. Sin embargo, una reciente encuesta realizada por la Facultad de Psicología de la Universidad de Buenos Aires (UBA), un actor poco habitual del debate de este tipo, ofrece un diagnóstico que rompe esquemas y deja una señal de alarma para el kirchnerismo: el 65% se manifestó a favor de la condena judicial a Cristina Kirchner."},{"_id":"ZDS3KGOD4FHDNETL3GYAEHF3IM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Es una cifra llamativamente alta teniendo en cuenta el origen académico e histórico de quien la produjo, siempre más cercano a políticas relacionadas con el kirchnerismo."},{"_id":"APIWTIQ3GJF5HFWK2ZPT2RJV7E","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La investigación, realizada por el Observatorio de Psicología Social Aplicada (OPSA) y dirigida por el doctor Gustavo González, forma parte del Monitor de Inseguridad Nº 11. "},{"_id":"C6XIVCOQXBBSRCTC3AEOATCYE4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"A diferencia de los tradicionales estudios de consultoras privadas, este sondeo no fue encargado por medios ni por fuerzas políticas. Es un relevamiento propio de una unidad académica pública, llevada adelante con metodología cuantitativa sobre una muestra de 1.030 personas, distribuidas en los principales conglomerados urbanos del país, incluido Córdoba."},{"_id":"6OSNXKIH2VDDZAXAC22GDFZ7FQ","type":"raw_html","content":""},{"level":2,"_id":"ZP5O5QMITNFTRBIKHXSHYJNN4M","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":""},{"level":2,"_id":"5VASBW42QFHIPHWGP6ZVS3IA2Q","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Emociones: justicia, alivio y bronca"},{"_id":"25AHTFIKNRH4PJK5WIUAPVI3Q4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Cuando se pidió a los encuestados que expresaran en una sola palabra lo que sintieron al enterarse del fallo contra Cristina, los términos más repetidos fueron: “justicia”, “felicidad”, “satisfacción”, “alivio” y “alegría”. "},{"_id":"WSHJCKNNR5FOJPIUVM2GJERYMM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Muy por detrás, aunque presentes, quedaron las emociones negativas como “indignación”, “bronca”, “angustia” o “injusticia”."},{"_id":"3T4OGLWZBVCWTLOQ5HW5XX6GYE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En las respuestas múltiples, el 47% manifestó haber sentido justicia y esperanza al conocer la sentencia, y otro 32% dijo haber experimentado alegría. "},{"_id":"4CGHHGIQCZBQRADL6GUYTECROQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Incluso entre quienes votaron a Sergio Massa en 2023, un segmento relevante no se alineó con una visión de persecución judicial al estilo lawfare, lo que da cuenta de una fractura del consenso interno en el electorado peronista."},{"referent":{"provider":"","id":"BVL6KDLIG5BSTDKPRZAUTMIV7Q","type":"story"},"_id":"BVL6KDLIG5BSTDKPRZAUTMIV7Q","additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"},{"_id":"ITVZ7Q4I3ZAT7C7NNEHGUU5I2A","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Uno de los ítems más reveladores del informe indaga sobre la percepción del fallo. El 54% de los encuestados considera que la condena fortalece a la democracia, contra un 36% que cree que la pone en peligro. "},{"_id":"C3HQ6TQKHFB35ETLC5GH64IZUQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"En sectores identificados con la oposición libertaria, ese número asciende a casi 80%, pero incluso en franjas que votaron a Massa en el último balotaje, la opción de “fortalece a la democracia” obtiene niveles relevantes."},{"_id":"AGD4DSLBSZGDJK6SWHFYRJTUXQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Este dato cuestiona uno de los pilares narrativos más consolidados del kirchnerismo, que desde hace años sostiene la tesis de la persecución judicial como mecanismo de disciplinamiento político. La encuesta muestra que ese relato, al menos para una mayoría social, ya no conmueve o no convence en el país."},{"level":2,"_id":"DRIQCI5LYFFI5K6QRG6PK6GQNU","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"La sucesión: liderazgo en pausa"},{"_id":"WIQFJD3CIVF3BG6ZLSFG5QA3CA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Otro aspecto clave abordado por la encuesta es el futuro político del espacio que lidera Cristina. Con la imposibilidad de ocupar cargos públicos y de futuras candidaturas, el estudio preguntó quién podría sucederla en el liderazgo del peronismo. "},{"_id":"FPEJL6DFNZGMZPGM5MVCV3O2RM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"La mayoría (39%) señaló a Axel Kicillof, seguido por un 31% que respondió que “todavía no ve a nadie con capacidad para hacerlo”. "},{"referent":{"referent_properties":{"subtitle":"Axel Kicillof","caption":"Axel Kicillof, gobernador de la provincia de Buenos Aires. (Gentileza)","additional_properties":{"link":""}},"provider":"","id":"4CIQ5RWSKNHYXEGD6AG345BNTQ","type":"image"},"_id":"4CIQ5RWSKNHYXEGD6AG345BNTQ","additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"},{"_id":"EH6F5RZS2FEVNMN65UU4BRQC44","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Juan Grabois aparece con un 21% y figuras como Máximo Kirchner o Sergio Massa, con apenas 3% y 2%, respectivamente."},{"_id":"D7ANAXWWYRG6XPJLNC4MYI3E3A","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Esto revela dos cosas. Primero, que el liderazgo de la expresidenta aún no fue reemplazado con claridad dentro de la oposición; y segundo, que la transición generacional o ideológica dentro del peronismo está lejos de estar resuelta a partir del fallo de la Corte. "},{"_id":"5SJO6J7PDNCJLNODFRYNPNEARI","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Más aún, la baja adhesión a figuras que supieron estar en la primera línea del kirchnerismo parece indicar que el desgaste no es sólo de nombres, sino también de narrativa."},{"_id":"GLKCIW4FRRHAPO3PASUFP3VEVI","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El valor de esta encuesta no reside sólo en los números, sino en quién los produce y desde dónde. Que un estudio con origen en una facultad históricamente afín al kirchnerismo registre esta magnitud de desaprobación ante la condena de Cristina Kirchner marca un momento de inflexión. "},{"_id":"CVJ4XXHC6VEANO4VUQSTXGR7M4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Porque, si en el pasado los sectores cercanos al progresismo universitario eran un bastión de defensa ante cualquier embate judicial contra la expresidenta, ahora parecen menos permeables al relato de víctima. Al menos, en los resultados de sus estudios."},{"referent":{"provider":"","id":"4F3Q5NRUCVDDVKIKIX2QXBZTNA","type":"story"},"_id":"4F3Q5NRUCVDDVKIKIX2QXBZTNA","additional_properties":{"_do_not_inflate":true},"type":"reference"},{"_id":"JO3SSW4UIJCSXI6RXEW3XET6CA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"No se trata de una encuesta más. Se trata de un termómetro inesperado en un escenario político que sigue moviéndose bajo las placas de una figura que, para muchos, ya no representa justicia social sino impunidad. "},{"_id":"5ZJMWGQAYZDEXKETLE24GHOIPY","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Por lo dicho entonces, el peronismo, y sobre todo el kirchnerismo, tendrán que leer estos números con atención si quieren entender hacia dónde se está desplazando el ánimo social. Un enigma, por ahora."},{"_id":"WKRXNTKQCJCTHGN2AE3XH6MYNA","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":""},{"level":2,"_id":"OXLJJQQO65GVHAJ2K46FTPARZQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"header","content":"Ficha técnica"},{"_id":"4YOJ327G2VAXVKRRTCKHUM6ZZU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Tipo de investigación: cuantitativa. "},{"_id":"C57J6WKKJZAPTNZSINFAKEVFO4","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Modalidad: encuestas online geolocalizadas."},{"_id":"YV7NX2KAS5HHHIB2KXYKRJYE2I","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Contactabilidad: la invitación a completar la encuesta se realiza a través de redes sociales, según parámetros de geolocalización. "},{"_id":"FGCEVRDH7JHA5AR5RZJ4EKNDAM","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Universo: población general, mayores de 18 años. "},{"_id":"BQDG6NBL2JAYBFI6PHFBV4PYHQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Tamaño de la muestra: 1.030 casos. 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"},{"_id":"RMTU2HZENRAE3EQESFRY7BSKSQ","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Los centrales son tres para los dos puestos: Mariano Troilo, Nicolás Meriano y Fausto Grillo, los últimos dos zurdos. 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El atacante de Villa Nueva viene recuperándose y quiere estar presente ante el equipo del ascenso en San Luis, pero no es seguro que pueda jugar."},{"_id":"ELDEKKFAINFIFK2WDC3YQ4LUPE","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"El resto, no presenta mayores complicaciones, porque las alternativas están y el DT tiene diversas opciones para jugar, teniendo solamente como baja la de Lucas Menossi, quien sigue de licencia por razones personales."},{"_id":"OOXL3LB4BFADTAMG4P2KUVZCCU","additional_properties":{},"type":"text","content":"Belgrano dejó atrás su pretemporada, lo hace sin refuerzos en el plantel y se alista para jugar un partido en el que tiene toda la responsabilidad de asumir el protagonismo por su categoría y el rival que enfrenta. 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